Feb 18 2014

Analyzing Sam Hinkie’s Trade-Deadline Approach

Less than 48 hours away from the trade deadline, Sam Hinkie has still yet to make a move.

Sixers fans without steely nerves understandably may be questioning the sanity of such an approach. What once was seen as a lock—that one or more of Spencer Hawes, Evan Turner or Thaddeus Young would be gone by Thursday at 3 p.m. ET—suddenly appears to be no sure thing.

But Hinkie’s inaction shouldn’t be interpreted as a failure to pursue deals, as evidenced by this tweet from CBSSports.com’s Ken Berger:

ESPN.com’s Chad Ford echoed those sentiments in his latest edition of “Tank Rank,” writing, “The Sixers are as active as any team in the league right now, according to multiple NBA sources.” An NBA source also told Liberty Ballers’ Jake Fischer that “Hinkie has held discussions with all 29 rival NBA teams” about Hawes, Turner and Young.

In all likelihood, tonight will be the last time we see either Turner or Hawes in a Sixers jersey. Hinkie is simply doing his due diligence before pulling the trigger on any potential deal.

During his introductory press conference, he hinted at this mentality, saying of his conversations with owner Josh Harris, “We talk a lot about process, not outcome, and about trying to consistently take all the best information you can and make consistently good decisions.”

At this point, Hinkie remains in the information-gathering stage. He’s getting every team to lay their cards on the table before deciding which opportunity to pursue. While it’s a nerve-wracking approach for outside observers, it’s also yet another reflection of how the Hinkie-Harris duo have changed the team’s modus operandi.

What’s the downside of this strategy? Keeping the Turner-Hawes-Young trio together contributed to all three of the team’s wins over the past month. Young drilled a late three-pointer against Charlotte on Jan. 15, Turner dropped 34 against the Knicks exactly one week later, and ET hit a buzzer-beater against Boston on Jan. 29. Without those three victories, the Sixers would be working on a 21-game losing streak (!!!) and would be only two games ahead of Milwaukee for the worst record in the league instead of five.

Still, no team puts their best offer on the table a month before the trade deadline. Hinkie’s patience didn’t cost the Sixers substantially in the standings—they still have the second-worst record in the league, after all—and could pay dividends over the next 48 hours.

Welcome to Trade-Rumor-Palooza. Buckle up for what’s sure to be a wild ride.

  • robbybonfire23

    This is interesting in that I am so focused on Delon Wright, right now, any 76ers “Futures” deals prior to the draft will seem like so much “icing on the cake,” right now. Repeating what I observed, elsewhere, I think Delon Wright is the gem of this draft and confidently expect him to have a more productive NBA career than both MCW and Wiggins, with Exum the “X” factor who could become the competition to Delon Wright, in that regard.

    • Bryan Toporek

      Not saying this won’t change between now & the draft, but it seems like Delon might even be available with one of the Sixers’ second-round picks. (NBAdraft.net has him 65th on their Big Board right now, Chad Ford doesn’t even have him in his top 100, and DraftExpress doesn’t have him in their top 60.)

      I’d agree with the overarching premise, though, that any additional picks added would be icing on the cake. Especially if it’s for Turner or Hawes, two guys who the Sixers likely have zero interest keeping around past July 1. Still holding out hope that the Turner-to-Charlotte rumors come to fruition, as the thought of an extra late-first-round pick in this draft has me salivating.

  • Steven William Dawes

    So you want a guard who shoots 23 % from 3 as a junior in college? wow

    • JulianW

      Oh boy…someone mentioned the 3-point shot…

      Head explosion incoming from Robby everyone…duck and cover!

  • robbybonfire23

    Bryan –

    Just ran the numbers for conference play (13 games/each) for Wiggins and Wright. Before getting into my findings, I will say two things are in Wiggins’ favor. One, as a FR being compared with any JR in the country, he figures to have more upside from where he is right now. And two, just speculation on my part, but the team drafting him might consider switching him to F, given his dearth of assists from his guard position. This might be all that is needed to truly ramp up his game. At 6′ 8″ he is too tall for the guard position, understanding Magic was 6′ 9,” and the exception to all the “rules,” anyway.

    Andrew WIGGINS: 437 minutes playing time. 67-152 from the floor (44%); 2.54 PPX, that is 216 total points / 85 missed floor shots = 2.54 points scored per missed FGA.

    Per 100 minutes playing time WIggins’ rates of production are: DR 11; Assists 6; Steals 3; Blocks 2 1/2; and Turnovers 7.

    The bottom line number for Wiggins, his regression score, is: 369, pending factoring in tonight’s game, which I am on my way to doing, right now.

    Delon WRIGHT: 507 minutes playing time. 72-141 from the floor (51%); 3.28 PPX, that is 226 total points / 69 missed floor shots = 3.28 points scored per missed FGA (tops in the nation for all major program guards in this category).

    Per 100 minutes playing time Wright’s rates of production are: Dr 12 1/2; Assists 13 (!);
    Steals 7; Blocks 4; Turnovers 7.

    The bottom line number for Wright, his regression score, is: 619, tops for all major program guards in the county, and better than all but the best forwards and centers.

  • JulianW

    Good news everyone! The Pistons are interested in ET! Oh Joe Dumars, please channel your inner terrible GM and make this happen!

    • Bryan Toporek

      PLEASE LORD LET THIS HAPPEN. We will happily trade Hawes & Turner for Monroe and a first-round pick.

      • robbybonfire23

        I would even take Earl “The Pearl” Monroe for Turner. He’s only 35-twice.

  • Kevin Herman

    You can’t just gloss over a 2-3 year age difference. In general the younger a guy is the fast ther improvements come. Also, Wiggins is a beast on defense. Wiggins also on one of the most talented teams in the country. You can make all these ridiculous comments about Delon Young and no one will ever call you on it because nobody knows who he is or if they do will remember him by this time next year.

    • robbybonfire23

      He’s in the Pac 12, Buddy, it’s not like he plays for Muhlenburg. You mean YOU don’t know who he is. You mean YOU haven’t crunched the numbers on him. You mean YOU buy into all the media hype they can throw your way as regards over-rated commodities in this and every draft. You mean YOU don’t lose any sleep at night, keeping up with west coast results. You mean YOU haven’t checked out Young Mr. Wright at YouTube, so that YOU don’t know what he brings to a game, because as YOU said, nobody knows who he is, starting with YOU. An enquiring mind, YOU are not.

      • JulianW

        You have to admit Robby, sometimes you do come up with some obscure players to champion. I am not convinced that guys like Daniel Ochefu or the SMU freshmen are guys to be terribly excited about. However, this Delon Wright kid is the first one of your champions that looks actually promising. He has put up quality numbers on a consistent basis against quality opponents. I guess I’m going to have to keep an eye on him…

        • robbybonfire23

          Thank you for that, Julian. And yes, your are correct in that I swing for the fences, and hit that occasional “home run,” to go with more than my share of misses.

          Ordinarily I almost exclusively go by the dictates of my stats. And rarely do I trust my visual impressions. But I have to say, both Delon and Exum (for whom I have no stats) have the on-court charisma and basketball intelligence and creativity to where I feel comfortable in touting both of them for great things in the NBA.

        • robbybonfire23

          Yes, Julian, I am impressed with SMU’s Markus Kennedy (one promising-looking prospect whom I just found out bolted the Villanova program – to the Wildcats severe detriment), along with FR Ben Moore, whom they are bringing along really slowly.

          These two may never see the light of day beyond their college playing days, but they have quietly been really solid and have measurably upgraded that mostly obscure and non-descript program.

    • robbybonfire23

      Re your statement that Wiggins “is a beast on defense.” You mean he sticks with people like “glue,” or something? You mean he has the wing span of a 747? Apart from that, and I will take your word for it, he is averaging, in 13 conference games, exactly 3.6 defensive rebounds per game; 10 blocks in the 13 games = 0.77 blocks per game; and he has 15 steals in the 13 games, for a pedestrian average of 1.15 steals per game.

      Just my take, but I think many discerning basketball fans have been swept over by the enormous media hype and “fever” surrounding this rather ordinary talent, so far. Yes, he may yet develop and become “All World,” but must we pretend that has happened before the fact?

  • JulianW

    Well it looks like the first domino has fallen. Spencer Hawes to the Cavs for a pair of second round picks. Not invaluable in themselves, but I honestly was expecting more…

    • Bryan Toporek

      Given Hawes’ expiring contract, I’d say two second-rounders is actually pretty solid value. Especially if one of them turns out to be Orlando’s second-rounder. That’s basically a late-first but without any guaranteed money.