In the heat of the 2012 presidential race—actually, in the summer—when pundits on both sides of the aisle were split on who of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney was most likely to assume control of the executive branch of our dysfunctional government, Nate Silver was refreshingly clear. Obama, he asserted on his then-New York Times-hosted blog each day, had about an 80 percent chance of winning.
And then Obama won, and won in precisely the manner Silver predicted.
There was no magic here. Silver simply ran the numbers—well, simply may be understating it: he looked at all the … Read the rest