Feb 11 2014

Evan Turner to Charlotte: That’s Something Everybody Can Enjoy

Over the past few weeks, numerous reports have mentioned the Charlotte Bobcats as a possible suitor for Evan Turner.

Grantland’s Zach Lowe joined that chorus on Tuesday:

The Bobcats are absolutely serious about pursuing Turner, per several league sources, and the Sixers could take on Ben Gordon’s expiring contract along with one of Charlotte’s extra first-rounders (likely the 2014 pick Portland owes it) if that closes the deal.

It’s a trade that would make sense for both sides.

Yes, Turner’s inflated counting stats are great: 17.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists. But ET fails both the eye test and the advanced stats test. His career-high player efficiency rating (13.3) is well below the league average (15), and he’s averaging a career-low .025 win shares per 48 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.

Not to mention, he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer, assuming the Sixers extend an $8.7 million qualifying offer to him. His cap hold will be nearly $13.4 million, per ShamSports.com, or 200 percent of his previous salary. Even if the front office doesn’t plan on being active in free agency, that’s a ridiculous amount of money to (temporarily) sink into a player it has no interest in retaining.

Trading for Gordon, whose $13.2 million contract comes off the books in July, would give the Sixers that much more cap room and would allow them to be on the receiving end of a massive salary dump. (Like the Utah Jazz did this past summer with Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins).

Portland’s first-round pick would be the main entrée in the deal, though. Players like Kyle Anderson, Mitch McGary, Sam Dekker or Wayne Selden Jr. could be available toward the bottom of the first round, giving the Sixers a chance to add yet another talented young player to their budding core.

For Charlotte, meanwhile, adding Turner might help push the team into the playoffs for only the second time in franchise history. The Bobcats’ small forwards rank 28th in the league in efficiency, per HoopsStats.com, an area of weakness which Turner could help address. They’d also gain ET’s Bird rights, giving them the right of refusal once he becomes a restricted free agent this summer.

If Sam Hinkie can wrangle a first-round pick for Turner, it’ll be a major heist for the Sixers. Even if it does come attached to Ben Gordon’s corpse.

  • robbybonfire23

    Looked like a done deal, from the headline. Oh, o.k., it’s just a teaser.

  • robbybonfire23

    Looking at Anderson, McGary, Dekker, and Selden… Anderson comes in with a regression grade of 564, which is in the B- ballpark. McGary grades “Incomplete,” and Dekker and Selden both show a rather poor 389 score.

    • Bryan Toporek

      Not saying those four are the only options, just giving a handful of ideas as to which late-first-round prospects might be available. And, given the bust rate with late-first-rounders, any productive player you can pluck from there is a plus. Given Hinkie’s success unearthing late gems in Houston (namely, Chandler Parsons), I’d be pretty confident with his ability to find a quality player with the 26th pick (or whatever Portland’s pick ends up being).

      • robbybonfire23

        Yes to that, Bryan. In fact, the depth and quality of this year’s late first round draft picks may come into play as long-term significant as the obvious high-end choices. We know Wiggins and Parker will be gone, early, with where Embiid, Exum, Ben Moore (SMU), and Ochefu are taken holding just as much interest, to me, as the top of the board? Can’t wait for it to all shake down.

    • Charles Baron

      Do any wings/guards rate well on your regression scores?

      • Charles Baron

        And more to that point: have you considered scoring relative to a postion as opposed to all players in general – seems to me like that might make it a more apples to apples sort of comparisons, even if it has its own shortcomings

        • robbybonfire23

          Yes, but just in terms of F-C-Guard, I don’t really get deeply involved with the power/small forward breakdown, or PG’s vs. SG’s. Basically I am looking at FG% and DR’s for centers and forwards; and FG% and Assists for guards, understanding that from a regression value standpoint, those two categories rate closely together, Assists at + 1.45 points per, as of today, and DR’s at +1.36 points value per.

          By the way, I have been doing this since 1988 and never before have I seen Assists with a higher regression value than DR’s. The first year I compiled these stats, DR’s were at + 1.25, and Assists were at + 1.00. So that the game has changed since then. Blocks, back in 1988 had a value close to 2.00, now it is just about half that value. More big men around, one may assume.

          This really enables comparisons between front court players and guards. The area needing adjustment is in scoring and especially FG%, given that forwards and centers do better, overall, than do the guards.

      • robbybonfire23

        Hi Charles – I am going to do some more backcourt ratings updates later in the week. Don’t see a real standout, other than swingman Kyle Anderson. Some decent guards include Juwan Staten (WVA) and Delon Wright (Utah). DeAndre Kane (ISU) has tailed off, somewhat.

        It’s a good question in that most of the talent this time around appears to be front court scoring and rebounding “machines.” After Wiggins, who will be the next guard to be taken? No idea, frankly, unless some team wants Anderson back there. Oh yes, Markus Smart, before the suspension, was grading poorly, after a good start. Now he is an “attitude” problem child. It’s a dumb move to take Smart, you could say.

  • hk99

    As bad as Turner is, Ben Gordon’s corpse is worse and Ben Gordon is even worse yet. Imagine how many games they can lose with Ben Gordon playing instead of Turner.

    • Bryan Toporek

      And here we thought 45-point losses were rock bottom. This could be beautiful.

  • sam p

    MCW at point Gary Harris SG Wiggins or Parker at SF McGAry and Thad at PF and NOel at center. That’s not to mention all the cap to go after a free agent. Bottom line— Watch out NBA! s**t’s about to get real.