May 21 2014

Lottery and Draft Buzz: Sixers Land 3rd, 10th Picks

Yes, the Cavs won the lottery. Again.

Getty Images

Getty Images

Now that the dust has settled and the pain has faded — Cavs again? Are you [redacted]  kidding me? — we now have a slightly better idea about what might go down on June 26.

The Sixers were awarded the 10th pick, via NOLA, and the third pick, slipping a spot due to the spiteful jerky basketball gods rewarding Cleveland with another lottery victory. Philly will get its pick of at least two of Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum and Jabari Parker (and maybe others. Who knows).

Plenty to discuss over the next month. We’ll start with a few more lotto thoughts from myself and Eric Goldwein.

Wiggins (via Wes)

Will he still be there at three? It’s possible … check out these reports from Beacon Journal and Chad Ford of ESPN.

Ford tweeted pre-lotto that the Bucks were considering Exum and Embiid, among others, had they landed the top pick, so a lot is still in play. Plus, we need to consider the very real possibility of a Hinkie bomb. Other players we haven’t touched on could very well still be in play.

#Sixers Hinkie: ‘I think everyone assumes there’s a board and everything’s set. There’s a lot of work to do.’

— Tom Moore (@tmoore76ers) May 21, 2014

I don’t buy that Wiggins is their clear number one. There’s lots of scouting and work to be done, as he noted, and there’s no way of knowing what is and isn’t a smoke screen. Trust no one (except Woj. Most of the time).

Leverage over small markets (Eric)

I don’t see a Kobe Bryant-Charlotte Hornets situation — where a rookie forces his way out of a city — going down in next month’s draft. I’m not sure that even happens anymore. And it’s unclear whether it happened in Bryant’s case. That said, having Cleveland and Milwaukee at the top of the draft — and Orlando and Utah at No. 4 and No. 5 — makes Philly, comparatively, a much better destination. That certainly can’t hurt.

Sixers are in a great spot w/ regards to agents. They will be posturing like crazy to get their clients to PHL vs. Milwaukee or Cleveland.

— Kyle Neubeck (@NeubeckNBA) May 21, 2014

Out West (Wes)

Based on reports, the Kings don’t sound all that enticed by their options with the No. 8 pick.

Just filed to http://t.co/X75SPTIUSC: Kings put No. 8 on the trade block, wanting veteran instead of next rookie to develop. Link to come.

— Scott Howard-Cooper (@SHowardCooper) May 21, 2014

Why does that matter for the Sixers? Well, apparently the Kings liked Thad Young last year (before they traded for Rudy Gay) and could see the Sixers as a potential trading partner.

Came decently close to trading for Thad last year. RT @SHowardCooper: Kings put No. 8 on the trade block, wanting veteran instead of rookie

— Jake Pavorsky (@JakePavorsky) May 21, 2014

Packaging Thad with the Pellies pick to move up two spots wouldn’t make much sense, but the Sixers have other attractive assets and five second-round picks. Mindless speculation is pretty fun, eh?

Trade down with the Jazz? (Eric)

Jabari Parker is a Mormon, 62 percent of Utah’s population is Mormon, and Jabari Parker is good at basketball. Naturally, the Jazz would be interested in taking him with their No. 5 pick, but he’ll likely be gone by then. If he’s left at No. 3, should the Sixers consider trading down?

Well, that of course depends on what they’d get from Utah, who they have third on their big board, and whether they see a big gap between their third and fifth ranked prospects. If Parker is their guy, the haul would have to be significant to warrant trading down. But if they don’t see a big difference between Parker, Dante Exum, and say, Noah Vonleh, then why the hell not?

With that in mind, don’t be surprised to read about sources close to the organization saying the Sixers want Parker. If there’s no credible threat that the Sixers (or No. 4 Magic) would actually take Parker, it’ll hurt them.

Pelicans pick

There was a real possibility (4 percent) of the Sixers losing the Pelicans pick, and it’s worth noting that crisis was averted. The Cavs — slotted only one spot ahead of New Orleans in the lotto race — had a 6.1 percent shot of getting into the top three and hit the jackpot. Had the teams traded positions, the result would’ve been a catastrophe wreaking all hell on the city of Philadelphia, and by the city of Philadelphia, I mean the comments sections of Sixers blogs.

But, I digress.

Our heads now turn towards the June 26 Draft. Two top 10 picks, lots of moveable assets, and Sam “Mr. Steal Yo Picks” Hinkie. For now, exhale. The worst part is over. The real fun is yet come.

  • hk99

    IMO, there is a drop-off after the top 8 (Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Exum, Vonleh, Gordon, Randle and Smart – in order according to Chad Ford’s Mock Draft). As such, I would love to see them maneuver from #3 and #10 to #5 and #7 or #8.

    • hk99

      To me, Vonleh + Smart > Parker + Stauskas or Harris

      • Wesley Share

        Don’t necessarily agree, but interesting. Maybe it’s cause I’m not that high on Smart (or Parker, for that matter).

        I think there are two major drop-offs: Top-4 (Wiggins, Embiid, Exum, Parker), to the next tier (Gordon, Vonleh, Randle) to the rest of the late-lotto/mid first rounders (Stauskas, Young, Lavine, etc.)

        I will say: I’d rather have a top pick like Wiggins/Exum/Embiid/Parker with Stauskas/Harris than Vonleh and Smart. One of the first four has the best shot at being an actual star player, which is most important in competing for a title, considering the direction the league is heading in (i.e., less competitive balance, more super-teams loaded with stars).

        If the Kings want to trade that pick, and the Sixers can fork it away with Thad and a few second-rounders and not have to deal the Pellies pick, that’s most ideal scenario.

        • hk99

          My tiers are as follows:
          1: Wiggins and Embiid (assuming he’s healthy)
          2: Parker, Exum, Vonleh and Randle
          3: Gordon and Smart
          4: All of the rest
          I would not do what I suggested in my comment above if Embiid or Wiggins is available. If they go 1 and 2, I would be okay with it because I’m not high on Parker – what he brings on the offensive end looks like it may be offset by what he gives up on the defensive end – and I don’t think Exum is a good fit with MCW.

          • robbybonfire23

            I like your tiers structure, HK.

            Mine are …

            1. Embiid
            2. Exum, Randall, Vonleh, Kyle Anderson.
            3. Marcus Smart, Doug McDermott.
            4. Aaron Gordon.

            10. Wiggins & Parker.

            50. LaVine, Hood, & Gary Harris.

    • robbybonfire23

      Kyle Anderson, I submit, is NOT part of the qualitative drop-off, HK. Parker is a mediocre-to-poor shooter and has an invisible floor game, which tabulates a combination of assists, DR’s, steals, and blocks, as well as the negative impact of turnovers. Talk about a caveat emptor draft, this is the one!

  • Dave Long

    Just keep hold of MCW and Nerlens Noel. Also, retain the ridiculous speed and quickness of Tony Wroten to bring off the bench. He’s a great Sixth Man. That’s all I’m really hoping for at this point. Keeping Thad would be awesome, but I feel like he may be a piece they’ll deal to move up in the draft.

    • robbybonfire23

      Excellent point, Dave, and a bonanza for us if that trading up involves landing Embiid, and no one else!

  • robbybonfire23

    Here’s a little value points tabulation scoring for the different college programs (plus foreign selections) having one or more picks in the top-30, after the dust of the draft day trades had been settled…

    Kansas (Picks #1+3) = 2089 Pts.
    (Foreign) (5-12-16-25-26-27) = 707
    UCLA (13-22-30) = 694
    Duke (2-23) = 471
    KY (7-17) = 405

    Ariz (4) = 378
    Mich (8-21) = 331
    Okla. St. (6) = 325
    IND (9) = 253
    Lou. Laf. (10) = 231

    MSU (15-19) = 214
    Creighton (11) = 210
    N.C. St. (14) – 153
    Syra (18) = 91
    UConn (24) = 28

    Wash (28) = 6
    Stanford (29) = 3