The 2007 Phillies defied the laws of probability, erasing the Mets’ seven-game lead with 17 remaining to win the N.L. East. It took an historic comeback and an epic collapse. The Phillies went 13-4 to close the season while the Mets, whose playoff chances peaked at 99.8 percent, lost 12 of their last 17.
The Sixers are in better shape than the ’07 Phillies, but their playoff chances are slimmer than you may realize. They too, will need some combination of comeback, collapse, and statistical variance (or major deadline personnel moves from the Celtics/Bucks) to grab the overly cherished eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. Of the Sixers’ remaining 31 games, 19 are on the road and FOUR are against Miami. In addition to the five games they need to catch Milwaukee, they have to hold off Toronto and Detroit – teams that just acquired impact players in Rudy Gay and Jose Calderon.
Hollinger’s Playoff Odds give Philadelphia 11.2 percent and while this factors in strength of schedule, it doesn’t take into account Andrew Bynum’s pending return or Thaddeus Young’s hamstring injury. (As Tom noted two weeks ago, the Sixers are really bad when Young is out of the lineup.)
There is minimal evidence that this Sixers team, as currently constructed, is anything beyond mediocre, especially without Thaddeus Young. That their record is 22-29 is remarkable given their point differential (-3.1) and expected win-loss (19-32). Their only stretch of consistent winning basketball came in November when they started 10-6 and benefited from a cakewalk schedule. Going forward, especially in the immediate future, they’ll face a tough schedule with a decimated roster.
Here’s a sneak preview of the road ahead. Just for fun, I chose 14 games to make an arbitrary 2007 Phillies comparison. My predictions are on the right.
Feb. 20 @ Minnesota L
Feb. 23 vs. Miami L
Feb. 24 @ New York L
Feb. 26 vs. Orlando W
Feb. 28 @ Chicago L
March 2 vs. Golden State W
March 3 @ Washington L
March 5 vs. Boston W
March 6 @ Atlanta L
March 8 @ Miami L
March 10 @ Orlando W
March 11 vs. Brooklyn L
March 13 vs. Miami L
March 16 vs. Indiana W
Three against Miami, four sets of back-to-backs, and 10 against playoff teams. It’s an incredibly difficult stretch. I have them going 5-9, which would leave them at 27-38 with 17 games remaining. In this scenario, where the hypothetical playoff benchmark is .500, they’d need to finish 14-3. In other words, they’d need a ’07 Phillies-esque run.
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