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Jun 26 2014

The Hoop76 Lottery Big Board for Armchair Sixers GMs Who Can’t Draft Good

Going last-to-first, just to keep you in suspense…

On the bubble

Dario Saric: Fell out of my top 10 after he signed the three-year deal overseas.

Kyle Anderson: A forward who can’t defend or play off the ball; no thanks.

Zach LaVine: He can jump high and he can shoot. Sometimes. Maybe he’s the next Jamal Crawford. But I’ll pass.

14. Jusuf Nurkic, Bosnia, C

Age: 19 (b. Aug. 23, 1994)

Scout’s take:

Via Chad Ford:

Nurkic is 6-foot-11, has a 7-foot-2 wingspan and weighs 280 pounds. That’s his biggest calling card right now. He’s also very skilled, with soft hands around the basket. The athleticism is not there, however, which limits his upside.

Outlook:

A seven-footer with a polished post game, Nurkic is the Spencer Hawes replacement we’ve all been waiting for. But seriously, the 6-foot-11 center is regarded as one of the few true big men in this draft. A possible fit next to Nerlens Noel.

13. Doug McDermott, Creighton, SF/PF

Age: 22 (b. Jan. 3, 1992)

Scout’s take:

Outlook:

He’s going to be a train wreck no matter where a coach sticks him on defense, but they don’t call him Dougie McBuckets for nothing. His offensive game is more diverse than he’s given credit for, and if there’s a front court fit for him anywhere in the lottery, it’s Philly (or Charlotte).

12. James Young, Kentucky, SG

Age: 18 (b. Aug. 16, 1995)

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

Because of his age, it is difficult to label Young; he really is a ball of clay. What we do know is that he can jump out of the gym, has good size for his position, has a nice stroke from about 21 feet and will burn a calorie defensively. There are guys who have been drafted with much less promise than that, and his work ethic will likely dictate how much (or little) he develops. – Chad Ford

Outlook:

Some may be looking for more of a sure thing with the No. 10 pick, but Young isn’t Zach LaVine. He’s got real basketball skills, and at 18 years old, plenty of time to develop them . 

11. Nik Stauskas, Michigan, PG/SG

College: Michigan

Age: 20 (b. Oct. 7, 1993)

Position: PG/SG

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

Most NBA GMs and scouts consider him one of the best pure shooters in the draft. He has a super quick release on his jumper and can get it off against just about anywhere on the floor. In a league devoid of great shooters, Stauskas is an instant commodity.

He has an excellent handle, can play the point in a pinch and has a high basketball IQ that allows him to score in other ways besides 3s. The only real knock on him is on the defensive end.  – Chad Ford

Outlook:

Like most avid basketball watchers, I love quick releases. So, predictably, I’ve fallen for Nik Stauskas; not just for the Sixers (who could surely use a perimeter shooter), but for any NBA team in need of a shooter.

10. Adreian Payne, Michigan State, PF

 Age: 23 (b. Feb 18. 1991)

Scout’s take:

Via his DraftExpress Scouting Report:

Not only did he score at a prolific rate [this season], he was also highly efficient (54% 2P%, 42% 3P%, 79% FT%) at that. His 61% TS% ranked 13th overall among Top-100 prospects….

Payne is more susceptible to fatigue, as he has smaller lungs than the average person his size.

Outlook:

Hear me out. Yes, he’s 23. But he has a well-rounded offensive game. He’s a stretch four with the tools to be a terrific defender, and he moves exceptionally well for his size (6-9 and 239 lbs). Might not have the biggest upside, but there’s a lot of teams he could help out right away, and in the long term.

9. Gary Harris, Michigan State, SG

Age: 19 (b. Sep. 19, 1994)

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

Harris is one of the true two-way players in the draft. He’s equally effective on both ends of the court, which is a large part of his appeal. Harris can score in multiple ways, both by driving to the basket and from the perimeter and he’s capable of guarding both backcourt positions as well.

His lack of elite size for his position is the biggest knock scouts have against him.  – Chad Ford

Outlook:

As noted in his SB Nation scouting report, he’s an off-ball threat who can score off all types of screens. More importantly, he’s a pest defensively. He wouldn’t be the sexiest pick in the world, but like his MSU teammate, his floor is high and he’d contribute immediately.

8. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State, PG/SG

Age: 20 (b. Mar. 6, 1994)

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

He’s got a strong, stocky frame, and he knows how to keep defenders shielded from the ball. Smart is an excellent finisher at the rim, even through contact, and knows how to initiate it and follow through. He’s an awful perimeter shooter, from 2- or 3-point range, but that doesn’t deter him from pulling up for them.

Defensively, he has great anticipation and strong “athletic hands,” which allow him to rip the ball away. I like the fact he’s an excellent defensive rebounder for a guard.

– Amin Elhassan

Outlook:

He projects to have the highest WARP among all draft prospects at 3.6, thanks to his proficient steal rate (which Pelton correlates to NBA success) and rebounding ability. Fit could be a problem with MCW but if he’s there at 10, he’d probably be the best player on the board.

7. Julius Randle, Kentucky, PF

Age: 19 (b. Nov. 29, 1994)

Scout’s take:

Via his DraftExpress Scouting Report:

Randle was criticized for much of his freshman year for a low steal and block rate, which many attributed to having short arms. He put that rumor to rest by registering a 7-foot wingspan, more than adequate for his 6-9 (in shoes), 250-pound frame, even if his standing reach leaves something to be desired at 8-9 1/2. The 6-9 250 pound Randle measured similarly toKevin Love, who came in at 6-7 ¾ without shoes, 255 pounds, with a 6-11 ¼ wingspan and 8-10 standing reach.

Outlook:

If the foot injury causes him to slide, he’s a solid selection at 10, and even a possible trade-up target. He’s got a solid post game, he can rebound, and he’s a surprisingly good ball-handler.

6. Joel Embiid, Kansas, C

Age: 20 (Mar. 16, 1994)

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

Embiid is a long, fluid, explosive athlete who runs the floor well and moves with a ton of grace on the court. It’s hard to believe that he’s been playing the game for only four years, as he exhibits the type of feel and anticipation at 20 years old that some players go whole NBA careers without showing.

– Amin Elhassan

Outlook:

Embiid’s entire body has amounted to dust and his career is over because, Greg Oden. OK, no, it’s not quite like that. But it’s not an ideal situation. He had a bad back, then a stress fracture in his foot and while I’m no doctor, that sounds like a bad combination for a 7-footer whose future depends entirely on his ability to jump high, block shots, and dunk basketballs.

Still, Embiid is a possible top-five pick. That tells you what people think about his ceiling. Let’s hope these are two random, nonrecurring injuries — and that he miraculously slides to 10.

5. Noah Vonleh, Indiana, PF

Age: 18 (b. Aug. 24, 1995)

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

Vonleh is a long, active athlete with great agility and fluidity. He has a very soft shooting touch as a big, with range that stretches out to the college 3-point line, where he shot 16-of-33 this season. He’s an excellent runner in transition, can change direction and avoid defenders trying to draw contact.

Defensively, he’s an excellent rebounder who will board outside of his area, using his length and agility to cover lots of space.  – Amin Elhassan

Outlook:

His freakish 7-4 wingspan gives him an advantage at the four, and he can utilize that size nearly everywhere on the court. He’s a plus defender/rebounder and an above average shot-blocker for his position. Pelton compared him to Chris Bosh.

4. Aaron Gordon, Arizona, PF

Age: 18 (b. Sep. 16, 1995)

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

Offensively, he’s a diamond in the rough, but has some very defined skills. He’s an excellent finisher around the rim, and extremely active on the offensive glass….It should be noted that he has an inconsistent release on his jumper, but it’s not totally broken. Plus, he shot at a decent clip from 3-point range (16-for-45), and improved throughout the season.

On the defensive end, Gordon has impressive lateral ability and can move his feet and stay in front of opponents of any size. – Amin Elhassan

Outlook:

I made my case in a draft profile a few weeks back, and I’ll make it again. Gordon is the best and most polished defensive player in this draft, and though his offensive game is lacking, he has a half-decent 3-point shot (36 percent last season), and more importantly, time. He’s only 18.

Worst case, Gordon is a defensive-minded role player who doesn’t need the ball. His ceiling is much higher. Think mid-2000s Shawn Marion or Andrei Kirilenko.

3. Jabari Parker, Duke SF/PF

Age: 19 (Mar. 15, 1995)

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

Parker combines a good feel for the game with a big frame (6-foot-8, 240 pounds) and length. He makes quick decisions with his touches and isn’t prone to holding on to the ball to try to get what he wants. He has good handles for a guy his size, but he seems to struggle getting the separation to get by guys and as a result will resort to step-back shots and pull-up jumpers off the dribble.

As far as defense, Parker shows good awareness, but he’s not very comfortable or confident on the perimeter. His lateral quickness is an issue, and he doesn’t seem to know how to effectively use his length and size as a cushion. – Amin Elhassan

Outlook:

Parker is a great fit for the Sixers; he can score efficiently and Philly doesn’t have anyone that can do that at his position (or any position, for that matter). Defense, though, is a major concern.

2. Dante Exum, Australia Institute of Sport, PG/SG

Age: 18 (b. Jul. 13, 1995)

Scout’s take:

Outlook:

Interesting tidbit from Chad Ford on Bill Simmons’ draft edition of the B.S. Report: with help from Brett Brown’s basketball mob connections in Australia, the Sixers were able to get their hands on 36 of Exum’s games this season. That’s, like, a lot of game tape. Exum is a combo guard with arms longer (6-10) than Julius Randle’s body (6-9). He’s raw, and there are questions about how he’d fit next to MCW. But if Brown is on board, so am I.

1. Andrew Wiggins, Kansas, SG

Age: 19 (b. Feb. 23, 1995)

Scout’s take:

Via his ESPN 360 Draft Profile:

While scouts and GMs wring their hands over the fact that Wiggins isn’t a complete player yet (his jump shot and handle both still need work) and have fretted over his lack of aggressiveness (especially at the beginning of the season), there’s a general consensus that has been out there since the beginning that he’s still the best long-term prospect in the draft.

He has elite size and elite athletic abilities for his position. He’s already a lock-down defender. He’s a hard worker and a great teammate. He already possesses a ton of NBA tools and won’t have to face zone defenses every night, which should open up the game for him. If he keeps working on his game and stays healthy, there’s no reason he can’t become a Paul George-like player in the NBA. – Chad Ford

Outlook:

He can jump over the sun. His athleticism is second to none. Plus, Wiggins and Noel on fast breaks would be an illegal amount of fun. I’m done. (I’ll show myself out).

  • robbybonfire23

    In a fair and just world, Marcus Smart would shoot like Nik S., and Nik S. would defend like Marcus Smart, rendering these crucial decisions much easier to make.

    The fascination connected with all this speculation is which of these players with upside potential will actually get there from their college level replete with flaws and defects?

    “Mr. Lock Down” on D, A. Wiggins, better rev up that part of his game in the NBA, because it was out to lunch at Kansas. Marcus Smart, in three fewer 40-minute games in conference and NCAA play, had more DR’s than did “Mr. Lock Down,” 92-79. Smart also had more assists, 95-36, steals 55-28, and committed 13 fewer turnovers. The Lock Down Kid did have a slightly better shooting eye, but that is close. Plus AW won the blocks category vs. Smart, 22-10. Overall, though, one has to wonder why Wiggins gets all the buzz and Smart is considered a borderline top-5 pick.

    Parker cannot shoot and Parker cannot defend, but everyone loves him anyway – except for somebody close to me.

    I am done with Embiid. If he fully recovers and has a Shaq-type career, no apology need be forthcoming from anyone not now in his camp. Too much risk, here, but that does not mean that Embiid will not bounce back and enjoy the last laugh.

    Gary Harris is beyond awful, coming out of college. Shooting game, floor game, you name it, he is AWFUL. If this translates to his becoming an NBA all-star, then it’s back to the drawing board in my house.

    Zach LaVine – when Barnum and Bailey comes through my town I will give you a call and you can hook up with your REAL calling in this world.

    As regards Kyle Anderson, we have here a decent shooter with a brilliant floor game, which is not quite the same as his “defensive game,” but it sounds like, even with phenomenal numbers re his all-around game, Anderson does not get the accolades of a Parker or a Wiggins or a LaVine because he does not look as mobile or athletic. But he does get the job done and would be a really sharp pick at #10.

    The biggest losers in this draft will be the teams taking, in no particular order… LaVine, Hood, and that Gary Harris plug with the “journeyman” label, a la Evan Turner, plastered all over him.

    Enjoy it. We have all been waiting for this day for a long time. I have high hopes our G.M. will really shine and ace the field, over the next few hours, starting with not drafting or trading for any of the glut of dunderheads in this vastly over-rated draft. (Ok, it IS better and deeper than last year’s abysmal draft class.)