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Dec 21 2013

Tankfest 2013: Bucks Beat Sixers, 116-106

Philadelphia 76ers 106 FinalRecap | Box Score 116 Milwaukee Bucks
Thaddeus Young, PF Shot Chart 39 MIN | 11-19 FG | 4-4 FT | 10 REB | 3 AST | 0 STL | 1 BLK | 3 TO | 30 PTS | -1

#TogetherWeBuildTradeValue (h/t Liberty Ballers’ Sean O’Connor)

Highly efficient night offensively for Thad with 30 points on 19 shots. His shooting stroke is finally coming together and he’s scoring as efficiently and versatilely as ever. Looks like he hears those trade rumors knocking on his door.

Evan Turner, SF Shot Chart 33 MIN | 2-15 FG | 6-6 FT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 0 BLK | 3 TO | 10 PTS | -8

Ten points on 15 shots, a bunch of missed off-the-dribble field goals, lazy perimeter defense and a handful of shots blocked. Just another Evan-y evening.

Spencer Hawes, C Shot Chart 35 MIN | 10-15 FG | 3-3 FT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 25 PTS | +3

With every little runner, on-point lead pass, and high-arcing three, I come closer to permanently referring to him as Spirk Nohawtzki. Keep it up, Spence.

Michael Carter-Williams, PG Shot Chart 33 MIN | 7-16 FG | 4-5 FT | 3 REB | 12 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 19 PTS | 0

MCW was persistent in finding his shot early on, and played more modestly once he got on track. The offense relied heavily on the pick-and-rolls tonight, and MCW found the screener for easy buckets more often than not.

But the league-leading thief struggled defensively, especially on the perimeter, against Knight, who dropped 21 points.

Tony Wroten, SG Shot Chart 20 MIN | 3-7 FG | 1-2 FT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 3 TO | 8 PTS | -9

It was nice to see fewer heat checks, but would’ve liked to see him handling the rock and getting to the rim (and the line) a little more. He was facilitating a little too often — hence the 0.3 AST:TO ratio.

By the Numbers

  • 12,736,363,981,382,192,212: The number of threes converted against the Sixers this past week.
  • 116: The amount of points that Milwaukee – dead last in the NBA in both points per game (91.0 ) and offensive efficiency (94.5) – dropped on the Sixers tonight. Not surprisingly, a season-high.

Quote of the Game

“It’s what you get from games you lose that is extremely important.” – Pat Riley

Tweet of the Game

Parting Shots

Tank Watch: Utah picked up its eighth win of the year tonight over Charlotte and looks to be on the rise; they’re 7-9 with Trey Burke, 1-13 without him. So, the Sixers are now just one game ahead of Utah. The real competition looks to be the now 6-21 Bucks. Tankfest is on, ladies and gents.

  • robbybonfire23

    It is incredible that this coach refuses to bench Turner and give all the minutes he squanders to some men who, in sparing minutes, look like they could become a dramatic upgrade. Where the hell does it say a Delaware 87ers roster-filler level talent has to start in Philadelphia?

    Why cannot this team acknowledge that this former marginal-talent guard has failed in the attempted transition to a forward position? Does this organization ever take stock of what it is doing, as regards player performance level? I thought Charlie “The Human Mule” Manuel was the only jerk/pilot on the planet who was adamant about not benching washed-out regular players. What, Evan Turner gets a hearty “He’s My Guy” vote of confidence, too? This guy is an over-matched YMCA pick-up team scrub, can you just sit him down, PLEASE?

    • hk99

      robby,

      What’s the upside of benching Turner? Do you think that splitting his 36 minutes per game between Hollis Thompson, Elliot Williams, James Anderson, Brandon Davies and/or someone currently toiling in the minors is more important than giving Turner playing time and feeding him the ball to try to increase his value? He’s averaging 19.3 PPG and 6.6 RPG. Now, I get that it is an empty 19.3 PPG in that it typically takes a high # of shots for him to score that many. I also get that he’s a horrible (disinterested) defender. However, it’s still 19.3 and 6.6 and there is a GM out there who should be willing to part with an asset in exchange for acquiring Turner. I believe that Brown and Hinkie understand that Turner is not part of the future beyond this season and are trying to maximize whatever value he has. Benching him would quite possibly be the stupidest thing that they could do.

      If they sign him to an extension after this season, disregard the above and feel free to serve me some crow to eat.

      • robbybonfire23

        Another take would be that by increasing Turner’s playing time you are further exposing his inadequacies. Nothing wrong with that as part of a tanking strategy, if that is where you and the club are coming from?

        Where we part company is where you try to make the case that Turner is at least a journeyman NBA starter, rather than what
        he truly is, one of the worst regular player’s in the NBA, on a qualitative analysis basis, exacerbated by the fact that the team has him playing out of position. Maybe he could revert to getting minutes as a back-up guard? I would be o.k. with that, at least for awhile as a lab “experiment.”

        Yes to more playing time for Hollis Thompson and for certain Lavoy Allen, based upon their qualitative analysis numbers thus far this season. Probably no to more playing time as regards James Anderson. Also yes to giving Orton, Davies, and Elliot Williams at least a half-decent shot. Any young player can come back to burn you in another uniform if you do not give him a chance as a matter of organizational philosophy.

        Right now, if it were up to me, I bench Turner and give Lavoy Allen the starter minutes he has earned coming off the bench.

  • robbybonfire23

    Let’s extend Turner’s playing time and all his numbers, as though his game vs. Milwaukee mirrored that for the entire team. The team would have totaled…
    14-108 shooting from the floor (13%). 0-22 from 3-point range. 43-43 FT/FTA.
    21 total DR. 21 Assists. 43 personal fouls committed. 14 steals. 21 turnovers. 0 blocked shots. And the grand total of 57 points scored.

    Milwaukee’s numbers for the game were…43-82 composite shooting (52 %); including 7-25 from 3-point range. 23-25 FT/FTA. 9 OR. 43 DR. 20 Assists. 20 PF committed. 9 steals. 13 turnovers. 9 blocked shots. Which adds up to Milwaukee outscoring a Philadelphia team comprised of 12 Evan Turner’s, by the score of 116-57.

    Regrettably, the above reflects Turner’s performance level in far too many games.

  • hk99

    C’mon robby, you know better than to use the small sample size of one game for anything. Why didn’t you choose to extend Turner’s playing time and all of his numbers from Friday night’s game to make a point? You know, the night that he went 13-22 from the field and put up 29, 10 and 5. Now, as I’ve mentioned, I don’t think Turner’s part of the future nor do I think the front office does, but it’s just plain silly for them to bench him or for you to use one game’s performance to make any determinations.

  • robbybonfire23

    Fair enough, for awhile, until I can’t take it anymore, I will extrapolate Turner’s stats as though the entire team’s performance is comprised of Evan Turner’s “production,” game-by-game.

    And you are right in making the case that the Milwaukee game was especially dreadful, even by Turner’s bottom-feeder standards. The problem is that the Milwaukee game was more typical of his overall play than any of the rare good games that he has had. So let’s just give him a game-by-game trial, until reality hits home for his “fans” here.

  • robbybonfire23

    Here is why I say Lavoy Allen deserves to be starting ahead of Turner. Allen is shooting 47.4% from the floor; Turner is shooting 43%. (Turner is converting 32 per cent of 3′s, Allen doesn’t shoot them.)

    Turner leads Allen in assists per missed floor shot, by a rate of 42 assists
    per 100 missed floor shots; to 39 assists per 100 missed floor shots for Allen.

    Allen shows a rate of 142 Defensive Rebounds per 100 missed floor shots.
    Turner shows a rate of 59 Defensive Rebounds per 100 missed floor shots.

    So that Allen is a slightly better shooter and a whopping better rebounder, while Turner has a slight edge in the assists column. Allen has earned his shot as a starter on this club, unless this club is “Tank City” in its approach to these games.

    Don’t be puzzled by my usage of missed floor shots as the barometer for measuring overall production. It is akin to baseball using batter’s outs recorded to tabulate batting average, slugging average, home run rates, etc. It’s just borrowing a page from the sabermetrics way of dissecting team and player value and issues.

  • robbybonfire23

    As regards the importance of DR’s and assists, on a regression basis they are both worth slightly more than an average of 1 point, per each extra DR and Assist a team registers, vs. its opposition. You out DR your opponent by 10 DR’s = you win the game by more than 10 points, everything else being equal, and discounting the Home Edge of 3 1/2 points in the NBA, to this point in the season.

    So that the major difference in this category in favor of Allen over Turner, would and could translate into the club winning an extra close game or two, every month of the season.

  • hk99

    robby,

    You continue making the case against Turner getting playing time as if the great majority of bloggers and readers here disagree with you. You also keep doing so on the basis that winning another game or two per month would be a good thing. I think you are wrong on both counts. The majority on here – myself included – (a) want Turner to do well to improve his value in the trade market and (b) would rather see the 76ers win 18 games, not 30.

    • robbybonfire23

      You cannot have it both ways. If Turner actually steps up his all-around game, the team will win closer to 30 games than 18 games. If he continues to “tank,” this reduces his trade value and the team painfully struggles to the finish line.

      Yet you want Turner to get major minutes and improve, boosting his trade value, while expecting the team not to show W-L percentage improvement, at the same time. Hopefully team management is not as fog-bound as to its priorities, as you are.

      So long as Turner continues to receive major minutes, this team is certifiably in the tank.

      • JulianW

        Incorrect. An individual player can have a good game and the team could still lose. Look above at Spencer Hawes or Thad Young’s stat lines for evidence. Both had games that build their trade value, and the team still played like the 18-win team we thought they were before the season began. Turner can get major minutes, improve his trade value, and it’s possible the team can still lose games.

        • robbybonfire23

          Will you stop being ridiculous and get off the pot? One player having a good game is not the entire team having a good game, BUT, for each player who makes a positive contribution, it closes the gap vs. the opposition to where, with enough players chipping in, the L turns into a W.

          What is the matter with you that fundamental logic eludes you?

          • JulianW

            Didn’t you just type out an example where you applied ET’s most recent game to the whole team? Why is it that one bad game reflects on the whole team, but the players that have a good game don’t factor into the equation?

            I am using logic here in looking at the whole picture. You can’t take one player’s poor game for your point while ignoring a different player’s good game. You seem to be misinterpreting what logic is, and instead are cherry picking numbers to further your own agenda.

          • robbybonfire23

            You conveniently ignore my stated willingness to extrapolate Turner’s numbers, game by game, from now on. That is, until he goes in a trade, and hopefully that is coming down as we speak.

            Please don’t twist or reinvent what I said to suit your purpose. The guy was brilliant vs. Brooklyn, then turned right around and had one of the worst games this season by any player in the league this year, vs. Milwaukee.

            In fact, that brings up a good point. And that is, that he really did get off to a good start, this season. Then, one month in, he reverted to his old ways of being a complete klutz of a basketball player. He did the same thing a year ago. So that he has these inspired streaks, followed by the most God-awful dry spells imaginable. Who among us can explain this player’s maddening inconsistency? Maybe he is bringing outside problems to the arena? Something is going on with him that he would be the most Jekyll and Hyde basketball player in captivity.

          • JulianW

            ET is most decidedly not consistent throughout the year, you are correct in saying that. However, benching him does not suit anyone’s purposes. Keep playing him in the hopes that he has more good games leading up to the trade deadline, where hopefully some inept GM (alas Billy King is out of picks to trade) sees his offense numbers and trades some assets. If we don’t trade him then hey, losing is not the worst thing in the world for this season. But do not sit him and watch his value dwindle to nothing, only to have him leave via FA and we get nothing in return.

          • robbybonfire23

            O.K., now we are getting somewhere. You favor keeping Turner, playing Turner full time, and, by inference, the team continuing on its tanking track, given that Turner is the worst starter on the team, by far.

            I would rather the team upgrade immediately, for above stated reasons. Both takes are valid, we just cannot tell at this time what the outcome will be. I am just suggesting that the team’s tanking may not guarantee the blockbuster payoff so many seem to think it will result in, down the road. There are no guarantees.

            Remember how high we all were when we got Turner in the draft?
            He has devolved from “savior” to “sludge.”

          • JulianW

            The draft is not a guarantee, true. However most sources agree that this particular draft is very deep and features very talented players. I remember 2010 featured John Wall, Boogie Cousins (with all his character concerns), and that’s about it. ET was viewed as a solid if not exactly game-changing player.

            Now 2014 features Wiggins/Parker/Randle/Smart/Exum at the top, and they are all leagues above ET at the same point in their careers. Are they guaranteed? Absolutely not. But the returns seem more likely to be favorable for them than it was in 2010. Skepticism is acceptable, but I’d rather bet on a horse with 3-1 odds (the 2014 draft) than one at 25-1 (the stinky 2010 one).

          • hk99

            I have never seen analysis like yours on defensive rebounds, but I’ll accept what you say. However, to compare Turner to Lavoy Allen almost exclusively on the basis of defensive rebounds is foolish. That’s like saying Ryan Howard is better than Chase Utley because he hits more HR’s. It completely ignores all other facets of the game including that Turner is a SF and Allen is a PF. By the way, Turner is 5th in the league in DR per game among small forwards. If DR are that important, you may have to rethink your stance on Turner.

      • hk99

        robby,

        Whereas you usually make some sense, you make none here. I agree with you that Turner is not a particularly good player, especially when you look beyond the big 3 statistics (19.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 4.0 APG). However, since Turner’s statistics are pretty empty, whether he plays or not will make little difference for this team in the W-L colum in the next 27 (before the trade deadline). They are as bad as we think they are. Therefore, when looking at their options with Turner, they can either:
        1. Bench him and finish in the bottom 2 or 3 of the NBA, get nothing for him at the trade deadline and let him leave as a free agent after the season.
        2. Keep playing him, hope he has a few more games like Friday night vs. Brooklyn, hopefully secure an asset for him from a less sabermetrically inclined GM who likes the 19.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 4.0 APG line and still finish in the bottom 2 or 3 of the NBA.
        Why would anyone choose #1?

        • robbybonfire23

          HK – If Turner’s playing time is reduced, it means that Allen, for starters, gets more playing time. This absolutely moves this team up in the competitive arena.

          I would trade Turner right now, as part of the Thad Young package. Some rumors are going around that the 76ers have some takers on a deal involving both of them. Let’s see if the team can get it done, sooner, rather than later.

          Your point re the value to this team for tanking is certainly valid. For me, the team making positive changes and upgrading right now would be o.k., too, especially as I don’t see Parker or Wiggins becoming anything special in the NBA. The upcoming draft looks vastly over-rated, given that the best players in college this year don’t look that great. IF I am right about this, then the 76ers might just as well turn the “tanking” corner and go about the business of winning to the best of their ability, effective immediately.

          Probably no one will agree with me on that strategy, and that is o.k. It’s going to be at least a couple years before we know how all the variables in play right now will shake down. Talking MCW and Noel – what level they will reach in their career? Talking about the quality of the upcoming draft? Talking about how the club handles Young and Turner – what it will receive in return for them? Talking about others who need to go, or be given a full shot, etc?

          All I know is that there will be major surprises and major disappointments, from where we stand, today. The answers are going to require a lot of patience.

          • JulianW

            You think Wiggins and Parker are over-rated? They don’t look that great in college? Wow, I guess you see something that the many paid experts on these NBA teams don’t. How exactly have they underperformed? Maybe Wiggins hasn’t set the world on fire but Parker and his 20PPG/7RPG look real nice. Your opinion on the draft is just that, only your opinion. Not grounded in evidence at all.

          • robbybonfire23

            First of all, their numbers are inflated by the abundant number of early season “soft touch” opponents their teams are playing. We will know more about their real level of skill as they get deeply into their respective conference schedules.

            So that quoting statistical averages, at this stage, can be misleading. Hey, if they turn on the after-burners against the big boys, I’m with you. Always open to changes as they happen. That’s why I do the math.

          • JulianW

            Ok, now I can work with you here. I disagree that they have put up all their numbers against creampuffs (like Randle’s effort against MSU or Parker’s effort against UCLA), but it is true that the meat of their schedule still lies ahead of them. But the returns thus far have been very positive.

          • hk99

            I watch very little college hoops and I haven’t seen Wiggins or Parker, so I go by what I read and their stats. What don’t you like about them? Parker’s stats (22 and 8, 55% from the field, 47.5% on 3′s) are pretty impressive.

            I did see Julius Randle in the 2nd half against Michigan State earlier this year and I came away impressed. Rebounds are the statistic that translates best from college to the pros, so to see Randle averaging 11.3 boards as a freshman is impressive.

          • robbybonfire23

            Well, yes, DEFENSIVE REBOUNDS are where the value lies. Offense rebounds are statistically neutral, given that they are a byproduct of missed floor shots, and shooting percentage is the most important component leading to success in the game of basketball.

            One season, doing regression stats for NBA games, the numbers gave a value of +1.25 points per DR; while the OR rebound category got just +.10 of a point. So that I bypass factoring OR’s into the stat mix I apply to player’s and teams.

            But, yes, those DR’s are a powerful weapon to have. Following tonight’s NBA games, check the box scores and see how many teams that show a plurality of DR’s, also won the game? The answer will be probably all of them, but certainly no more than one of the DR rebounding advantage teams will lose tonight.

  • JulianW

    Sup Robby, I’m back.

    As has already been mentioned, benching ET serves no purpose than fulfilling your odd vendetta against this guy. If he plays well he improves his trade value. If he plays poorly it doesn’t really matter in the overarching plan for this season. If we bench him he sits and collects no additional value, then leaves in the off-season while the Sixers get nothing.

    So tell me again the value that lies in benching ET?

    • robbybonfire23

      Vendetta? Are you nuts? I’m an fan, same as you, who would like to see my team move on from the dregs on the roster and compete at the top level in this league. What a childish, silly comment. Do better or buzz off.

      • JulianW

        And yet you seem to consider Lavoy Allen, Elliot Williams, Davies, and Orton all-world top-tier caliber players. That in itself invalidates your opinions.

        And you didn’t address why you think that benching ET improves this team’s chances to compete. Do you think that benching him will all of a sudden spark the Sixers into playing like the Pacers or something?

  • robbybonfire23

    Doing the Game Scores for Julius Randle, vs. the four top KY opponents so far this year – MSU, Providence, Baylor, and No. Carolina, his scores run: 64-26-27-9. These are actually levels, in increments of 20. So that a 64-level game is what I used to record as a game score of 64 x 20 = 1280. Damn impressive when you consider that in the NBA the average game score is just under 400, or level 20.

    To record the 64-level game score vs. MSU, he played 35 minutes; went 9-14 from the floor; committed just one turnover; and scored 27 points to go with 1 assist and an impressive 9 DR’s.

    On the other hand, Carolina shut him down almost completely. In 29 minutes of playing time he was just 3-9 from the floor; committed 4 turnovers; scored just 11 points; had ZERO assists; and showed a modest total of 5 DR’s, thus the pedestrian Game Score of 9.

    Again, the Game Score formula is:

    Pts. x (Assists + DR’s) / Minutes played x ( floor shots missed + Turnovers); then multiply this result by 1000.

    So it is too early to get excited about any of these promising young players. They, like the pros, can run hot-to-cold from game to game. What is fun is watching them develop.

  • robbybonfire23

    I just ran the numbers for Andrew Wiggins, vs. the six best teams he has faced this season, and he may be the second-coming of some guy walking on water, but he hasn’t even come down to the boat house, yet. The six opponents I graded him against are: Duke, Wake Forest, Villanova, Colorado, Florida, and Georgetown.

    Six games, just 8 assists total, including four vs. WF, four vs. Georgetown, and ZERO assists vs. Duke, Villanova, Colorado, and Florida, in 179 total minutes of playing time.

    Decent floor shooting numbers, 35-72 = 48.6 per cent. I will never play down this category to ram home a point, it is the most critically important component of a basketball game, and of winning. Period. Wiggins grades just fine, here.

    15 turnovers are too much relative to the paltry number of assists, just about double.

    The defensive rebounding is just fair, 22 total = just under four per game. So that we can say that Wiggins’ floor game, combining assists and DR’s is really poor.

    His point totals in the six games were: 22-17-10-22-26-12, just over 18 PPG.

    His Game Score Levels were: 38- 25.5 – 4 – 26 – 20 – 9.

    That is just ONE above average game score level vs. six major opponents.

    J. Parker, by contrast, comes in with early season game score levels of: 37 – 48 – 4 – 17 – and 54 = Two blockbuster efforts, to go with the very good 37 outing. The average in the NBA here, is close to 20, grading all five starters for every team in every game. Can’t really say what that translates to in the college ranks, but they should be comparable. So Wiggins, overall for the game score level, is right around AVERAGE.

    So that, until Wiggins takes a step to the next level, he is nothing special, just a raw talent who looks light years removed from NBA-impact status, given too many turnovers, not enough assists and team-concept play, middling DR numbers, to go with good floor shooting, his one positive attribute.

    There has been, forever, a tendency for followers of this sport to confuse a player’s “athleticism” with greatness. Will Wiggins always “look better” than his actual production on the floor. Can’t say, he is young, he WILL improve, BUT he has a long, long way to go. If the 76ers are my team, this is not the guy I tank the season for.

  • robbybonfire23

    I ran an NBA regression-values breakdown for nine players. The category values are as follows: DR +1.29; Assist +1.15; Steal +1.22; Blocked Shot +0.91; and T.O. -0.34. Of course these values fluctuate slightly game by game, with every new entry, but going by previous year’s numbers, these look sharp enough.

    So here is what we do. Let’s take E.T.’s totals in these categories, so far.

    DR’s 155 x 1.29 = 199.95; Assists 111 x 1.15 = 127.65; Steals 29 x 1.22 = 35.38; Blocks ZERO!; Turnovers 99 x -0.34 = -33.66.

    Now we add the category totals and get an answer of 329.32. To this figure we add the total points E.T. has scored this year: 540. So that 329.32 + 540 = 869.32.

    The final step is to divide the above sub total of 869.32 by the E.T.’s number of missed shots from the floor (XFG) so far this year. He is 207-471, so that he has missed 264 shots. We now divide his accumulated system points total of 869.32 by 264 = 329, transposing the decimal point a couple places.

    Here are the Regression report card scores and ranking, as of Dec. 24th. for E.T. and eight other players….

    1. S. Hawes: 491

    2. L. Allen: 458

    3. Hollis Thompson: 404

    4. MCW: 380

    5. Thad Young: 369

    6. E. Turner: 329

    7. Jas. Anderson: 325

    8. Tony Wroten: 310

    * And in a P.T. role Dan Orton checks in at 594.

    Three other NBA players of note with their Regression scores…

    Dee Jordan, LAC: 1170

    Lebron James, MIA: 662

    Kevin Durant, OKC: 491.

    This is my created method, using missed floor shots as the barometer and divisor. You may like it or not, there are countless ways of evaluating players in all sports. I enjoy creating my own methodology to see more deeply into the subject matter than the basic media stats everyone has access to.

    Yes, I would like to see the team give more playing time to Orton, Allen, and Thompson, and trade Young and Turner, who are humping along at the journeyman level, going by this criterion. (The club tanking strategy, notwithstanding.)
    ********

  • robbybonfire23

    Just ran Regression score for Asik. He comes in at 713, in limited action. If he is o.k. physically, let’s get that no-brainer deal done!